中国货币政策利率传导效率研究:2008-2017

随着利率市场化进程的不断推进以及商业银行利率定价机制的发展,中国货币政策利率的传导效率也不断提高。基于2008年1月-2017年6月的宏观时间序列数据和微观调研数据,本文检验了中国货币政策利率对银行贷款利率的传导效率。总体而言,基准利率是影响金融机构贷款加权平均利率的主要因素。分时间段看,贷款利率浮动限制放开之后,货币市场利率对金融机构贷款利率的传导效率显著提升;基准利率对金融机构贷款利率的影响略有下降,但仍然占主导。对商业银行贷款利率定价的微观机制进行探讨后,本文发现贷款利率定价机制的变化是中国利率传导效率出现变化的主要原因。进一步的分析表明,资金来源和市场利率波动均是影响货币市场利率传导效率的重要因素。最后,本文就如何提高货币政策利率传导效率提出了政策建议。本文研究对完善价格型货币政策体系以及中国货币政策框架转型具有重要的实践意义。     

Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

创新生态系统视角下价值共创如何影响企业创新绩效——一个有调节的中介模型

以创新生态系统为视角，引入创新资源互动与生态系统规范机制为中介变量和调节变量，探究价值共创如何影响企业创新绩效。基于307家企业样本数据，运用结构方程模型、Bootstrap和层级回归方法对数据进行分析。研究发现：创新生态系统中，价值共创不完全直接影响企业创新绩效；创新资源互动部分中介价值共创对企业创新绩效的影响；生态系统规范机制部分正向调节价值共创对创新资源互动的影响。最后提出，创新生态系统调控方与企业要差异化地制定提升创新绩效的实施方案，营造活跃的创新资源互动氛围，形成并完善系统内生态规范机制。     

基于技术轨道的制造企业服务化机理研究

基于技术轨道理论与制造企业服务化间的关系，认为技术轨道对制造企业服务化的影响机理包括3类：驱动机理、拉动机理和差异化机理。制造企业服务化转型内在机理是技术轨道驱动下投入服务化、企业边界变化以及用户需求、产出、政策拉动下与技术轨道的协同演化过程，且通过技术轨道形成服务化转型差异。制造企业对自身技术轨道的识别有利于确定发展所需主要技术来源及技术演化轨迹，把握实现服务化的关键机理。     

Ownership discrimination and private firms financing in China

This study examines the financing/funding of private firms in China. Our results show that private firms are significantly less funded through formal financing channels such as bank loans than state-owned firms, and hence have to resort to alternative financing such as trade credit. Consistent with the theoretical expectation and literature, there is a substitution effect between trade credit and bank loans for private firms, but this effect is much weaker compared to that of state-owned firms. Moreover, while the univariate comparisons indicate that private firms obtain more notes payable than state-owned firms, the multivariate regression analyses show that the relation between bank loan and notes payable is positive and indifferent between private and state-owned firms.     

VIX term structure and VIX futures pricing with realized volatility

Using an extended LHARG model proposed by Majewski et al. (2015, J Econ, 187, 521–531), we derive the closed-form pricing formulas for both the Chicago Board Options Exchange VIX term structure and VIX futures with different maturities. Our empirical results suggest that the quarterly and yearly components of lagged realized volatility should be added into the model to capture the long-term volatility dynamics. By using the realized volatility based on high-frequency data, the proposed model provides superior pricing performance compared with the classic Heston–Nandi GARCH model under a variance-dependent pricing kernel, both in-sample and out-of-sample. The improvement is more pronounced during high volatility periods.     

Estimating yield curves of the U.S. Treasury securities: An interpolation approach

Following the approach of interpolation, this paper proposes the multiple exponential decay model to fit yield curves for both the U.S. TIPS market and the conventional Treasury security market. Several estimation methods, including the unconstrained/constrained nonlinear minimization, quadratic programming, and the iterative linear least squares, are applied to estimate the unknown parameters according to different curve‐fitting purposes. Comparisons between the proposed model and the alternatives show that the multiple exponential decay successfully (1) adapts to a variety of shapes associated with yield curves, (2) (partially) keeps in line with the economic interpretations of Nelson–Siegel summarized by Diebold and Li ( 2006 ), and (3) dominates the competing models in curve‐fitting performance measured by mean fitted‐price errors over the sample period. In addition, the exact specification of a nonparametric interpolation model is pinned down by applying three statistical tools, which enable us to jointly take into account validity, optimality, and parsimoniousness of the proposed model.     

Beyond Single-Factor Affine Term Structure Models

This article proposes a new approach to testing for the hypothesisof a single priced risk factor driving the term structure ofinterest rates. The method does not rely on any parametric specificationof the state variable dynamics or the market price of risk.It simply exploits the constraint imposed by the no-arbitragecondition on instantaneous expected bond returns. In order toachieve our goal, we develop a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and applyit to data on Treasury bills and bonds for both the United Statesand Spain. We find that the single risk factor hypothesis cannotbe rejected for either dataset.     

金融组织强制性信息披露问题研究

由于规模经济的原因,作为信息劣势方——投资者公共利益代表者的政府必然成为强制性信忠披露的主体。政府按照参与约束原则和激励相容原则进行机制设计甄别金融组织,引导其确定合理的信忠披露边界,形成分离均衡,金融市场上的非对称信息转变为对称信息。但政府强制金融组织进行信息披露时,应尊重其利益追求和考虑金融市场发育程度等。